Saturday, December 28, 2013

South Sudan Primer

While it remains a rapidly evolving situation there exist certain static underlying realities that help inform and channelize future outcomes.  This is a first attempt at gathering useful resources to illuminate the situation in South Sudan. 







In Blue is Darfur, widely covered by a series of A list advocates.  Less understood is in Green, South Sudan, our newest nation and a recent hotspot of violence, displacement and human misery.  This is an exercise to gather resources on some of the fundamentals driving the conflict.

Context:
 2011 - national independence
 Capital Juba
 11 million South Sudanese
 Ethnically the dinka and nuer predominate
 World's newest country
 The East is oil country

"Recent Unpleasantness"  A Power struggle between these big 2 is a proxy for ethnic tension and unfinished business in the divorce
 1 Pres salva kiir , a dinka ( left, slick hat)
 2 Riek machar, a nuer, Former VP

















Past:
22 years of Sudanese civil war yields two distinct sovereignties by 2011
Finalizing the divorce involves some awkward conversations about who will keep the kids...

Present:
"What started as an 'attempted coup' allegedly targeting pres Kiir...has mutated into something that threatens the whole country... The army admits it has lost control of Bor, the capital of Jonglei state, to forces apparently led by General Peter Gadet. Perhaps worse still the fighting is already exacerbating ethic tensions in what is an ethnically divided country. The initial trigger for the violence was political - the ambitions of people like former VP Riek Machar and the determination of President Kiir to hold on to power." 

-120,000 IDP



http://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan-republic/south-sudan-crisis-humanitarian-snapshot-25-december-2013
This map illustrates the camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) that was created adjacent to the base for the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) in
the town of Bor, South Sudan. Imaged by the WorldView-2 satellite on 23 December 2013, the IDP camp hosts about 14,000 persons and the adjacent UNMISS base
includes troops from India, Nepal, South Korea, and Rwanda. A large area of standing water is visible immediately to the east of the IDP area. This is a preliminary
analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR / UNOSAT



-UN sheltering >30K IDP in five state capitals, Juba (capital) and Bor




UN looking at additional peacekeepers, recent India sustained peacekeeper KIAs from small arms fire while protecting UN compound with ethnic refugees hiding from a rival mob 

"Soldiers of the East Africa Response Force, a Djibouti-based joint team, prepare to support evacuation operations in Juba, South Sudan.  At the request of the US Department of State, the US Defense Department directed two US C-130 aircraft to evacuate personnel from Juba, the capital of South Sudan, Nairobi, Kenya.  DoD also augmented physical security at American diplomatic facilities in Juba with members of the EARF." US AFRICOM




Future:
 New Approaches to peacekeeping during state formation?

Stakeholders (interest): 
 ethiopia/kenya (regional stability)
 China (oil interests)
 USA (new nation stability)

Military Units Engaged (affiliation)
 7000 strong UN Peacekeeping force (UNMISS)
 South Sudan Army (Kiir)
 Presidential Guard Units (split)
 Organized Militia Networks (Situational Factionalism)
 Civilian Militia (ethnically aligned)

Key Figures
President Kiir
Been in current office since state formation in 2011, previously the primary VP of Sudan

 Developing Ties to China (With Hu Jintao)




Recently putting on a different hat (War Footing?)




Riek Machar

Riek Machar (26 July 2013)Member of South Sudan's second-largest ethnic group, the Nue(r)
Was a Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) commander and led a breakaway faction for some years in the 1990s
After 2005 peace deal appointed vice-president of interim government, retaining the post after independence in 2011 until his dismissal in July 2013       http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25402865



National Economic Interests:
 Oil
 Regional pipeline transit agreements


Mapping the Conflict in terms of...
Map showing oil fields and resourcesBoth Sudan and the South are reliant on oil revenue, which accounts for 98% of South Sudan's budget. They have fiercely disagreed over how to divide the oil wealth of the former united state - at one time production was shutdown for more than a year. Some 75% of the oil lies in the South but all the pipelines run north
Satellite image showing green south and brown northThe two Sudans are very different geographically. The great divide is visible even from space, as this Nasa satellite image shows. The northern states are a blanket of desert, broken only by the fertile Nile corridor. South Sudan is covered by green swathes of grassland, swamps and tropical forest.

Map showing distribution of ethnic groupsSudan's arid north is mainly home to Arabic-speaking Muslims. But in South Sudan there is no dominant culture. The Dinkas and the Nuers are the largest of more than 200 ethnic groups, each with its own languages and traditional beliefs, alongside Christianity and Islam.

Map showing distribution of water and sanitation facilitiesIn the Sudanese states of Khartoum, River Nile, and Gezira states, two-thirds of people have access to piped drinking water and pit latrines. In South Sudan, boreholes and unprotected wells are the main drinking sources. More than 80% of South Sudanese have no toilet facilities.
Map showing education levels in South SudanThroughout the two Sudans, access to primary school education is strongly linked to household earnings. In the poorest parts of the south, less than 1% of children finish primary school. Whereas in the wealthier north, up to 50% of children complete primary level education.
Map showing % distribution of food insecurity by state Conflict and poverty are the main causes of food insecurity in both countries. In Sudan, many of the residents of war-affected Darfur and the border states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan depend on food aid. The UN says about 2.8m people in South Sudan required food aid in 2013.
Video Summary


    Reports/sourcing:
    http://reliefweb.int/country/ssd/thumb#content
    http://reliefweb.int/country/ssd
    the best analysis of the South Sudanese political landscape ive seen by a smart regional analyst James Copnall --http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25454168
    James Copnall's twitter handle https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesCopnall

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